How the FIFA World Ranking is calculated
Since August 2018, FIFA has calculated the world ranking with an Elo-based method (the SUM method). Points are no longer averaged over several years; instead they are added or deducted after every international match:
P = Pbefore + I × (W − We)
Pbefore = points before the match, I = importance of the match, W = result, We = expected result.
W: Match result
- 1 for a win (including after extra time)
- 0.75 for a penalty shoot-out win
- 0.5 for a draw or a penalty shoot-out defeat
- 0 for a defeat (including after extra time)
We: Expected result
We = 1 / (10−dr/600 + 1), where dr is the points difference between the two teams before the match. The favourite therefore has a high expectation: a win earns it only a few points, a defeat costs it a lot. The underdog gains correspondingly more from an upset.
I: Importance of the match
- Friendly outside FIFA international windows: 5
- Friendly within an international window: 10
- Nations League group stage: 15
- Nations League play-offs and finals, World Cup and continental qualifiers: 25
- Continental finals (e.g. EURO, Copa América) before the quarter-finals: 35
- Continental finals from the quarter-finals: 40
- World Cup finals before the quarter-finals: 50
- World Cup finals from the quarter-finals: 60
No deductions in knockout matches
A team that loses in the knockout stage of a final tournament (World Cup or continental championship) does not lose any points.
Worked example
Team A (1,800 points) meets Team B (1,600 points) in the World Cup group stage (I = 50). With a 200-point difference, A's expected result is We ≈ 0.683. If A wins, it gains 50 × (1 − 0.683) ≈ +15.85 points and B loses the same amount. A draw costs A 9.15 points, a defeat 34.15.
Source: inside.fifa.com
WC 2030 Draw
For the draw of the 2030 World Cup in Spain, Portugal and Morocco, the FIFA World Ranking is again expected to decide which team goes into which pot. At the 2026 World Cup, the hosts and the highest-ranked qualified teams formed Pot 1, and all other teams were spread across the remaining pots by ranking position.
What is already certain: all six hosts qualify automatically, including Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay, which each stage one centenary match marking the World Cup's 100th anniversary. This is where they currently stand in the world ranking:
- Spain: No. 1
- Argentina: No. 2
- Portugal: No. 5
- Morocco: No. 7
- Uruguay: No. 20
- Paraguay: No. 33
Still open are the exact draw procedure, the date and the number of teams (48 or 64). FIFA has also not yet decided whether all six hosts will automatically be placed in Pot 1. Everyone else qualifies through the 2030 World Cup qualifiers.